We present new estimates of the budget outlook, based on the latest projections from the Congressional Budget Office and the Medicare and Social Security Trustee reports. The medium-term budget outlook has not changed appreciably since earlier this year. Under reasonable assumptions, the federal...
We provide new estimates of the federal budget outlook over 10-year and long-term horizons under three sets of assumptions: the Congressional Budget Office baseline, which assumes no changes in current law; an extended policy scenario, in which it is assumed that future Congresses act more or...
CNNMoney.com, Op-Ed.
Obama and other policymakers need to pay more attention to a fundamental conflict underlying the health care debate: People want the federal government to do much more than they are willing to pay for through their taxes.
Facing the most severe recession since the 1930s, and probably the longest as well, the
U.S. government has adopted an aggressive countercyclical fiscal policy stance, beginning with the Economic Stimulus Act of 2008 in February of that year, shortly after the recessions designated...
Los Angeles Times op-ed, July 8, 2009. In the immediate future, policymakers will face a delicate balancing act between encouraging economic recovery and establishing fiscal sustainability. Alan J. Auerbach and William G. Gale examine the economic challenges facing the U.S.
This paper reviews recent economic events and their impact on U.S. fiscal performance and prospects. We highlight the historic nature of the 2009 budget outcomes, the unsustainability of plausible ten-year budget projections, and the increasingly dire long-term fiscal problem. These conditions...
In 2009, the federal deficit will be larger as a share of the economy than at any time since the 1940s. After 2009, we project an average deficit of $1 trillion per year for the next 10 years, under optimistic assumptions. The longer-run picture is even bleaker, with a fiscal gap of 7-9 percent...
CNNMoney.com op-ed, July 30, 2009. William Gale and Alan Auerbach explain that the government is spending more than it's bringing in, resulting in a deficit. They explain why that gap must be brought under control.
With the economy rocked by mortgage defaults, illiquidity in financial markets, a falling dollar, and declining consumer confidence, fiscal matters have been placed on the back burner to some extent by policy makers and commentators. However, the fiscal problems facing the country not only won't...
As of this morning, yields on 10-year Treasury bonds stood at 1.33 percent. The yield on TIPS bonds–which are adjusted for inflation–was negative. These astonishingly...
Over the past few years, the long-term fiscal situation has improved. With the passage of the American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012 (in early January,...
