After worsening sharply during the Great Recession, the long-term fiscal outlook generally improved through 2015, due to a combination of legislative acts and lower projected growth of health care spending. The same factors and the slow but steady economic recovery helped reduce short-term...
Over the past few years, the U.S. long-term fiscal situation has improved somewhat and short-term deficits have come down. Perhaps as a result, policy makers have largely turned their attention away from dealing with fiscal issues. The fiscal problem may well be forgotten, but its not gone....
While political leaders remain tied up in discussions of government shutdowns and debt ceiling increases, we focus on the medium- and long-term budget outlook, where more serious challenges lie. With the passage of the American Taxpayer Relief Act, the imposition of the sequester, and changes in...
With the passage of the recent tax act, many observers are claiming that fiscal issues have been, essentially, resolved and that the nation should move on to other issues. The February 2013 release of the Congressional Budget Offices Budget and Economic Outlook provides an opportunity to re-...
We present new estimates of the budget outlook, incorporating the latest projections by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). Even with the economy recovering fully by 2018, current policy will result in deficits close to $9 trillion (4.5 percent of GDP) over the next decade, with the debt-to-...
We present new estimates of the budget outlook, incorporating the latest projections by the Congressional Budget Office. Although the official budget figures have improved relative to a year ago (primarily as a result of last summer's debt-limit deal and lower interest rate projections),...
We present new estimates of the budget outlook, incorporating the impact of the recent debt-limit deal and the latest projections by the Congressional Budget Office and the Medicare and Social Security Trustees.Although the official budget figures have improved relative to a year ago (as a...
We present new estimates of the budget outlook, based on the latest projections from the Congressional Budget Office and the Medicare and Social Security Trustee reports. The medium-term and long-term budget outlook have not changed appreciably since last year. Under reasonable assumptions, the...
This paper reviews the recent evolution of thinking and evidence regarding the effectiveness of activist fiscal policy. Although fiscal interventions aimed at stimulating and stabilizing the economy have returned to common use, their efficacy remains controversial. This paper reviews the debate...
As of this morning, yields on 10-year Treasury bonds stood at 1.33 percent. The yield on TIPS bonds–which are adjusted for inflation–was negative. These astonishingly...
Over the past few years, the long-term fiscal situation has improved. With the passage of the American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012 (in early January,...